Market commentary: Q1 2021
Stock Markets Stocks continued to climb in the first quarter and these results are signaling a robust economy ahead. Markets have made a dramatic rebound since the sharp fall in the first quarter last year. Look at the returns over the past twelve months in the chart to the right. Also note that stocks traded […]
Bonds are down on the year and that is ok
Most of our clients hold bonds and most of those bonds have “lost value” in the first three months of the year. That does not mean any of the bonds have defaulted. In fact, almost no bonds have defaulted in 2021. Rather, interest rates have risen causing the value of existing bonds to drop. It […]
SPACs, NFTs, and other jungle creatures
“The American marketplace is an economic jungle. As in all jungles, you easily can be destroyed if you don’t know the rules of survival. … But you also can come through in fine shape and you can even flourish in the jungle—if you learn the rules, adapt them for your own use, and heed them.” […]
Market commentary: Q4 2020
Stock Markets Results over the past quarter are consistent with positive expectations due to the introduction of vaccines in November. Small company stocks and Real Estate markets have snapped back but not enough to bring the past year’s Real Estate returns into positive territory. Over longer periods, domestic stock markets have outpaced international and emerging […]
Presidential election reflection
Here’s an interesting puzzle: Why do we cringe at the sight or sound of breaking glass, but we salivate over breaking news? In the run-up to the U.S. presidential election, you’ve probably been hit by enough breaking news to propel you well into 2021. Predictions abound on who will prevail, and what will happen to […]
Is the stock market overvalued?
Many of our clients have been asking why the stock market has recovered so much in the last two months while the economy is shrinking, and unemployment is hitting record highs. Implied in the question is whether the stock market is “overvalued” and will drop in the near future. The stock market may drop in […]
Deductibility of business expenses paid for with PPP funds
Congress created the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), to provide liquidity to small businesses dealing with the effects of the economic shutdown. It was clear from the language in the CARES Act that loans used for covered expenses would not be included in a business’ gross income. However, the Bill was silent on the deductibility of […]
Market commentary: Q1 2020
Stock Markets The damage to stocks from the Coronavirus pandemic is shown in the chart below as all markets are down dramatically. The domestic large cap stock market (S&P 500), driven by the largest tech companies, held up a little better. Except for this market, this quarter’s falloff brought the five-year returns to essentially breakeven […]
Fact checking stock market wisdom
Claim: Stock market volatility has been crazy this month. Our Ruling: True! This past month has been shockingly volatile. On average, there are 21 trading days in a month. Looking back on the previous 21 trading days ending 3/23/2020, we see an average daily move of 4.56%. There were more days with a 9% or […]
Expected returns: a review of 2019 and looking ahead to the 2020s
Each year large Wall Street firms post their expected returns for the next decade. A year ago, we saw the following forecasts: * Denotes a seven-year forecast The biggest thing that stands out here is the poor performance expected by U.S. Equities. Despite 93 years of annualized returns in excess of 9.5%, the best research […]