Bear Markets – What do they mean for investors in the long-term?
The most commonly accepted definition of a bear market is a 20% decline in value from the last market high. The S&P 500 has crept into bear market territory on and off so far in 2022, and it’s impossible to know for certain when things are going to turn around. However, when dealing with times […]
Six Ways a Recession Resembles a Bad Mood
There’s been a lot of talk about recessions lately: Whether one is near, far, or perhaps already here. Whether we can or should try to avoid it. What it even means to be in a recession, and how it’s related to current market turmoil. To put market and recessionary concerns in perspective, it might help […]
Ignore the Headlines
Recent headlines have been dramatic as “Inflation Soars to Highest level in 40 Years!” and “Stocks Plunge to 2022 Lows!” It sounds like the authors are all shouting, and we should really panic. It feels like we should “do something” but let’s take a step back from the headlines, and put today’s market in perspective […]
Capital Market Activity – 05/31/2022
Stock Markets Although rebounding lately, all markets are down year to date. Since December stock markets are off more than 10%. Tech stocks are especially hard hit – an equally weighted portfolio of the largest domestic tech stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Facebook) is off 25%. The premium to value markets, domestic and international, […]
Volatility – Like it or Not – is a Feature of Markets
Stock and bond markets alike are sorting their way through a potent brew of uncertainties these days. War, inflation, supply constraints, rising interest rates, growth concerns, and even crypto-currency dislocations are combining to drive markets lower by the day. It’s certainly no fun to sit through tumultuous markets, but turmoil like we’ve seen recently is […]
How Do We Choose the Funds We Use?
Does it seem like there’s been an extra level of uncertainty lately, threatening your investment plans? Of course, there are always big events going on; that’s the world for you. But today’s brew of geopolitical threats, inflation trends, rising interest rates, recessionary fears, and lingering COVID concerns may feel especially daunting. The market’s volatile reactions […]
Market Commentary: Q1 2022
Stock Markets Not surprisingly, stock markets were volatile this quarter. Faced with a myriad of issues ranging from renewed inflation, historically high equity valuations, winding down the Fed’s “Quantitative Easing”, capped by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The largest tech companies held up reasonably well, with Facebook as the only notable exception. Returns from stocks traded […]
The Fed Has Been Busy
The Federal Reserve has significantly altered their guidance in the last few months. The biggest change is the increase in the expected number of rate hikes this year. In December, the Fed was expecting three rate hikes in 2022. Three weeks ago, they increased that forecast to 7, and the market is now expecting 8. […]
How the Conflict in the Ukraine affects Investors
The war that began this week between Russia and the Ukraine is a human tragedy and a stark reminder that dollars and cents are secondary to health and safety. Some of us who have friends and family in the areas affected by war are focused on the wellbeing of their loved ones. But for most […]
Major Firms predict Expected Returns in the coming Decade
Every year large Wall Street firms publish their forecast of expected returns for the coming decade. The following table shows what each firm expects from capital markets in the coming 10-years. The first thing that jumps out is the poor expected performance by U.S. equities. Despite averaging nearly 10% over the last 100 years, forecasters […]