Interest Rate Outlook – November 2022
In early November, the Fed raised interest rates by 75 bps, marking the sixth rate hike since March 17th, 2022, and four consecutive .75 bps increases. This puts the Fed Funds rate (the short-term rate guiding overnight lending) up to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, pushing borrowing costs to a new high since 2008. […]
The Fed Has Been Busy
The Federal Reserve has significantly altered their guidance in the last few months. The biggest change is the increase in the expected number of rate hikes this year. In December, the Fed was expecting three rate hikes in 2022. Three weeks ago, they increased that forecast to 7, and the market is now expecting 8. […]
Major Firms predict Expected Returns in the coming Decade
Every year large Wall Street firms publish their forecast of expected returns for the coming decade. The following table shows what each firm expects from capital markets in the coming 10-years. The first thing that jumps out is the poor expected performance by U.S. equities. Despite averaging nearly 10% over the last 100 years, forecasters […]
The Fed’s new path and what it means for Investors
The Federal Reserve met in December and outlined a new course for monetary policy going forward. They signaled two big changes: The Fed will stop buying Treasury Bonds and Mortgage-Backed Securities by March The Fed expects to raise interest rates 3 times next year, bringing the Fed Funds rate from a target of 0.00% – […]
We all want income – but cash is what we really need?
Some of us still yearn for a simpler time, when we could expect to retire and live comfortably on interest and dividend income from our investments. Protecting the principal of our nest egg would allow us to live many happy years without fear of running out of money. Of course we may still want to […]
The fed giveth, and the fed taketh away
Around the globe, COVID-19 killed millions of people, caused nearly 100 million to lose their job, and decreased economic output by several trillion dollars. When times get this bad, we investors are prepared to see losses in our portfolios. But in 2020 we saw the opposite. The S&P 500 was up 18%, almost double its […]
Is inflation haunting your financial dreams? Part 2: what we can do about it
In our last piece, we covered the recent uptick in inflation, and what to make of it in historical context. For investors, it’s important to take a step back and look at the big picture before acting on breaking news. But what if inflation does get out of hand, and stays that way for a […]
Why value stocks do better with rising interest rates & inflation
Year to date returns for Value stocks have exceeded that from Growth stocks across all market caps, both domestically and abroad. There are several reasons for this. US Vaccination rates have been greater than expected, which has helped traditional companies (value) at the expense of technology companies (growth). Company specific earnings have likely made a […]
Market commentary: Q1 2021
Stock Markets Stocks continued to climb in the first quarter and these results are signaling a robust economy ahead. Markets have made a dramatic rebound since the sharp fall in the first quarter last year. Look at the returns over the past twelve months in the chart to the right. Also note that stocks traded […]
Bonds are down on the year and that is ok
Most of our clients hold bonds and most of those bonds have “lost value” in the first three months of the year. That does not mean any of the bonds have defaulted. In fact, almost no bonds have defaulted in 2021. Rather, interest rates have risen causing the value of existing bonds to drop. It […]