Reassessing volatility
2018 was a less pleasant time to be an investor. In the four trading days leading up to last Christmas, the market dropped 7.7%, capping off what was a nerve-racking year for investors. But when we delved deeper, we found that 2018’s volatility wasn’t that unusual. One measure of market volatility is looking at the […]
Active vs. passive fund management
Every six months, Morningstar releases their “Active/Passive Barometer.” We feel Morningstar is a good source of data as they tend to be unbiased. While Vanguard or Dimensional Fund Advisors will always tell you passive is better, and active fund managers will always mine data that trumpets the benefits of active management, Morningstar is close to […]
What happens when you fail at market timing
Trying to time the market is nearly impossible; there is no way to predict when the market is going to perform well and above what we expect it to. However, by buying and holding a low-cost, globally diversified portfolio, we know that we will not miss out on the returns of the top performing days […]
The market fools experts yet again (an interest rate story)
In the last year, interest rates have fallen dramatically. At the end of the 3rd quarter in 2018, the yield on a 10-year note from the U.S. Government was 3.05% and today it stands at 1.68%. This decline in interest rates is unusual, but not unprecedented. Given the vast resources of the world’s largest money […]
Market commentary – october 2019
Stock Markets It was generally an off quarter for stocks, except for Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). The year-to-date numbers look good. Recent periods show variability among individual markets as well as within various time periods – REITs continue to do well, no doubt reflecting declining interest rates. One theme running throughout the past ten […]
Recessions and investing
The word “recession” makes investors feel uneasy and with good reason; the correlation between a bear market and an economic recession is very high. For anyone with money in the stock market, especially those nearing retirement, this can be scary. The “r” word has been making headlines in recent months as investors worry about trade […]
Revisiting bond returns
Most people think of bonds like Certificates of Deposit (CDs). You loan someone money, they give you interest each year, and then at the end of the contract you get back the full amount you initially lent. Over that time, your return should be whatever the interest rate was and if you think of it […]
Market commentary – april 2019
Stock Markets Stocks rebounded nicely. Tech stocks (FANGs – Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google) after leading the way down in last year’s fourth quarter (off 22%) led stocks back up (up 23%). A global stock portfolio earned about 12% this quarter and domestic stocks continued in the forefront. Looking past this quarter, non-domestic markets have fallen […]
Market commentary – july 2019
Stocks for this quarter maintained the above-average trend in the year-to-date numbers. The primary market drivers are the Fed activities and the status of tariff discussions with China and Mexico. As the prospects for reduced interest rates and resolution of the tariff negotiations wax and wane, stocks move up and down. The graph below shows […]
Not all target date funds are equal
Target date funds have become some of the most common investments in America. Not coincidentally, their rise in prevalence has coincided with 401(k)s gaining in popularity. We have seen it here locally; many of the largest employers in Syracuse (Syracuse University, Carrier, Lockheed Martin, General Electric, Welch Allyn, and Niagara Mohawk/National Grid) had pensions. In […]