Expected returns: a review of 2019 and looking ahead to the 2020s
Each year large Wall Street firms post their expected returns for the next decade. A year ago, we saw the following forecasts: * Denotes a seven-year forecast The biggest thing that stands out here is the poor performance expected by U.S. Equities. Despite 93 years of annualized returns in excess of 9.5%, the best research […]
Putting the national debt in context for investors
The following article by Ethan Gilbert was recently published on Jim Cramer’s website, “TheStreet”, in their retirement section. Ethan began being a guest contributor in 2019. With recent headlines around the increasing national debt, our firm has had clients reach out to ask if they owned Treasuries and if the national debt is something that […]
Three upside-down investment insights
Often, all you need to be an excellent investor is a healthy dose of common sense: A penny saved is a penny earned. Buy low, sell high. Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. That said, the best way to achieve these simple goals isn’t always as obvious. In fact, many of our favorite […]
Market commentary – January 2020
Stock Markets Stocks were up nicely this quarter except for Real Estate Investment Trusts (REIT) which is quite a turnaround from last year’s fourth quarter. The one-year numbers including REITs, are well above what it is reasonable to expect over the long run but are necessary from time to time to make up for the […]
Active vs. passive fund management
Every six months, Morningstar releases their “Active/Passive Barometer.” We feel Morningstar is a good source of data as they tend to be unbiased. While Vanguard or Dimensional Fund Advisors will always tell you passive is better, and active fund managers will always mine data that trumpets the benefits of active management, Morningstar is close to […]
What happens when you fail at market timing
Trying to time the market is nearly impossible; there is no way to predict when the market is going to perform well and above what we expect it to. However, by buying and holding a low-cost, globally diversified portfolio, we know that we will not miss out on the returns of the top performing days […]
The market fools experts yet again (an interest rate story)
In the last year, interest rates have fallen dramatically. At the end of the 3rd quarter in 2018, the yield on a 10-year note from the U.S. Government was 3.05% and today it stands at 1.68%. This decline in interest rates is unusual, but not unprecedented. Given the vast resources of the world’s largest money […]
Market commentary – october 2019
Stock Markets It was generally an off quarter for stocks, except for Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). The year-to-date numbers look good. Recent periods show variability among individual markets as well as within various time periods – REITs continue to do well, no doubt reflecting declining interest rates. One theme running throughout the past ten […]
Recessions and investing
The word “recession” makes investors feel uneasy and with good reason; the correlation between a bear market and an economic recession is very high. For anyone with money in the stock market, especially those nearing retirement, this can be scary. The “r” word has been making headlines in recent months as investors worry about trade […]
Revisiting bond returns
Most people think of bonds like Certificates of Deposit (CDs). You loan someone money, they give you interest each year, and then at the end of the contract you get back the full amount you initially lent. Over that time, your return should be whatever the interest rate was and if you think of it […]