Assessing market volatility
In the last quarter of 2018, the market was down 20% from previous highs and we had many clients reaching out concerned about declines and high volatility. But when we examined the market’s movements, we found the volatility to be higher than normal but far from extraordinary. Recently, we have gotten similar questions from clients […]
Rebalancing – why buy stocks now?
Rebalancing the allocation among risky assets in your investment portfolio is an important discipline. It provides a structured way to maintain consistent risk exposure over time and forces us to “buy low and sell high” when it is not always the comfortable thing to do. This quarter is a good example, in the midst of […]
Three thoughts during scary markets
So, remember all those times we’ve said that investment risks and expected rewards are related? Coronavirus-fueled fears, driving economic insecurities, aggravating a host of simmering global sore spots, spiraling into stomach-wrenching market sell-offs … Be it confirmed. Today’s unfolding news is the realization of those risks we’ve been talking about all along. In case you’ve […]
How to be positively skeptical part 1: the benefits of having a doubt
“I’m not an optimist. That makes me sound naïve. I’m a very serious ‘possibilist.’ That’s something I made up. It means someone who neither hopes without reason, nor fears without reason, someone who constantly resists the overdramatic worldview.” — Hans Rosling, Factfulness Whether you’re considering an investment opportunity or simply browsing various media for insights […]
Expected returns: a review of 2019 and looking ahead to the 2020s
Each year large Wall Street firms post their expected returns for the next decade. A year ago, we saw the following forecasts: * Denotes a seven-year forecast The biggest thing that stands out here is the poor performance expected by U.S. Equities. Despite 93 years of annualized returns in excess of 9.5%, the best research […]
Three upside-down investment insights
Often, all you need to be an excellent investor is a healthy dose of common sense: A penny saved is a penny earned. Buy low, sell high. Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. That said, the best way to achieve these simple goals isn’t always as obvious. In fact, many of our favorite […]
You, your investments, and the coronavirus
Although we believe it is reasonable to say that few of us know much (if anything at all) about the Coronavirus, it has quickly grabbed global headlines. As the viral news has spread, so too has financial uncertainty. What’s going to happen next? Will it infect our economy? So far, U.S. markets have remained relatively […]
Market commentary – January 2020
Stock Markets Stocks were up nicely this quarter except for Real Estate Investment Trusts (REIT) which is quite a turnaround from last year’s fourth quarter. The one-year numbers including REITs, are well above what it is reasonable to expect over the long run but are necessary from time to time to make up for the […]
Reassessing volatility
2018 was a less pleasant time to be an investor. In the four trading days leading up to last Christmas, the market dropped 7.7%, capping off what was a nerve-racking year for investors. But when we delved deeper, we found that 2018’s volatility wasn’t that unusual. One measure of market volatility is looking at the […]
The market fools experts yet again (an interest rate story)
In the last year, interest rates have fallen dramatically. At the end of the 3rd quarter in 2018, the yield on a 10-year note from the U.S. Government was 3.05% and today it stands at 1.68%. This decline in interest rates is unusual, but not unprecedented. Given the vast resources of the world’s largest money […]
