It doesn’t take a genius to be a good investor
It doesn’t take a genius to be a good investor And geniuses often aren’t. This summer marked the 300th anniversary of the South Sea Bubble when Britain’s South Sea Company went from £128/share in January of 1720 to over £1,000 by August, and then crashed to £124 by the end of the year. The most […]
Updating expected returns
Arguably the most important thing Rockbridge does is forecast what kind of lifestyle families can expect in retirement. We believe our attention to retirement planning, and all aspects of financial planning, separates us from other wealth managers in Syracuse and across the country. The fee-only fiduciary model puts clients first and delivers on things investors […]
An investing lesson found in bank earnings
Last week, the largest U.S. Banks reported earnings. Since then, sellers of news have been scouring the information in an attempt to entertain their viewers and readers with insights into the future of stocks and the economy. Let them, but know the real value to the investors is not in the headline earnings miss, the […]
Assessing market volatility
In the last quarter of 2018, the market was down 20% from previous highs and we had many clients reaching out concerned about declines and high volatility. But when we examined the market’s movements, we found the volatility to be higher than normal but far from extraordinary. Recently, we have gotten similar questions from clients […]
Rebalancing – why buy stocks now?
Rebalancing the allocation among risky assets in your investment portfolio is an important discipline. It provides a structured way to maintain consistent risk exposure over time and forces us to “buy low and sell high” when it is not always the comfortable thing to do. This quarter is a good example, in the midst of […]
Market commentary: Q1 2020
Stock Markets The damage to stocks from the Coronavirus pandemic is shown in the chart below as all markets are down dramatically. The domestic large cap stock market (S&P 500), driven by the largest tech companies, held up a little better. Except for this market, this quarter’s falloff brought the five-year returns to essentially breakeven […]
Fact checking stock market wisdom
Claim: Stock market volatility has been crazy this month. Our Ruling: True! This past month has been shockingly volatile. On average, there are 21 trading days in a month. Looking back on the previous 21 trading days ending 3/23/2020, we see an average daily move of 4.56%. There were more days with a 9% or […]
Three thoughts during scary markets
So, remember all those times we’ve said that investment risks and expected rewards are related? Coronavirus-fueled fears, driving economic insecurities, aggravating a host of simmering global sore spots, spiraling into stomach-wrenching market sell-offs … Be it confirmed. Today’s unfolding news is the realization of those risks we’ve been talking about all along. In case you’ve […]
How to be positively skeptical part 1: the benefits of having a doubt
“I’m not an optimist. That makes me sound naïve. I’m a very serious ‘possibilist.’ That’s something I made up. It means someone who neither hopes without reason, nor fears without reason, someone who constantly resists the overdramatic worldview.” — Hans Rosling, Factfulness Whether you’re considering an investment opportunity or simply browsing various media for insights […]
Expected returns: a review of 2019 and looking ahead to the 2020s
Each year large Wall Street firms post their expected returns for the next decade. A year ago, we saw the following forecasts: * Denotes a seven-year forecast The biggest thing that stands out here is the poor performance expected by U.S. Equities. Despite 93 years of annualized returns in excess of 9.5%, the best research […]